How the Mobile Ecosystem is being hit by inflation & high energy prices

The latest data from MEF shows that mobile spending is softening across markets between the 2025 and 2026 surveys, as higher energy prices, inflation and interest rates pressure consumers and businesses. This shock is external, but the effects are internal.

Every crisis starts with the consumer: disposable income falls, credit tightens, in turn confidence drops, and ultimately spending changes shape. The number of consumers using smartphones to make payments has surged: from 82% of the user base to 92% over the past three survey waves of MEF’s Annual Consumer Survey. Mobile remains the default channel, but beneath that growth, behaviour is changing and spending is slowing.

Across 18 markets, mobile purchases of goods and services online declined between the 2025 and 2026 MEF Annual Consumer Survey. The drop was from 62% to 61%, which may seem small, but it is very broad. Thirteen markets show declines in at least one of the eight tracked payment categories. This matters more than the number suggest as it shows direction.

Ticketing fell in 10 markets between the same survey waves. Entertainment was cut first as people choose to stay home. As disposable income dropped, online shopping fell in eight markets, and food delivery and in-store mobile payments fell in seven.

Even resilient categories—such as subscriptions, apps, gaming and ride-hailing—have softened, meaning platforms like Netflix or Spotify are facing pressure on their premium tiers, and services like Uber are seeing reduced discretionary use.

So, consumers aren’t leaving mobile, but they are spending less inside it.

The cost side tightens

For the telcos, energy hikes mean costs go up: networks consume power and higher energy prices feed directly into operating costs. Then there is the impact of interest rates. As these rise, debt becomes expensive, refinancing tightens and inevitably investment decisions slow.

Many within the mobile ecosystem are looking at facing core problems of flattened revenues, rising costs, less available capital, and increasingly squeezed margins.

The semiconductor constraint

This cycle would be hard enough. But the mobile ecosystem also faces a supply constraint: memory.

According to SK Group, one of the world’s top memory chip makers, the shortage may last until 2030. Demand currently exceeds supply by more than 20%, and with production shifting towards AI memory, less goes to consumer devices.

Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix and Micron Technology, the other companies sitting at the core of the memory market, cannot close the memory gap quickly. Demand is driven by AI and led by players such as NVIDIA.

This increases component prices, leading to more expensive smartphones and slower upgrade cycles. In turn consumers keep devices longer, hardware volumes soften and the entire ecosystem slows.

This then feeds back into apps, services and payments. Slower device turnover means slower adoption of new features and a slowing of monetisation cycles.

Payments are changing

Mobile payments are still the backbone of the mobile ecosystem. Wallets such as Apple Pay are continuing to grow in reach, but the value per transaction is coming under pressure.

As consumers buy less or buy cheaper and high-frequency, low-value transactions dominate, the buy-now-pay-later models are at risk, especially when credit conditions tighten and defaults may rise.

For MEF members in payments and APIs, the message is clear – volume will not disappear, but margins will.

Refocused investment

Higher interest rates change behaviour fast. Small rises can lead to a reduction in appetite for risk, meaning projects are cut or delayed and Capex is reviewed.

Telcos are starting to slow network expansion, especially capital-intensive rollouts. 5G will continue, but slower. There will be deeper consideration regarding the territories used for rollout and partnerships will become more likely. For example, infrastructure partnerships will increase, there will be network sharing, more tower deals and an uptick in joint ventures. For mid-sized players, access to capital becomes a key constraint as private funding tightens while simultaneously public markets demand profitability. We will move into an era of more disciplined investment decision making – investments with clear returns, short horizons and measurable gains.

R&D becomes pragmatic

Despite all this, innovation won’t stop, but it will change direction with the focus shifting to cost reduction, automation, AI for operations, fraud prevention, and compliance.

As customer acquisition becomes more expensive, retention is clearly even more critical. Messaging APIs, identity, and authentication will all gain greater importance, with trust becoming an essential product.

Consolidation accelerates

This new environment favours scale, as smaller firms struggle with cost pressures and financing. Larger players, on the other hand, will look for efficiency as well as ensuring that acquisitions are truly strategic. This leads to market consolidation.

For telcos, major platforms and global providers, partnerships are going to be as important as competition.

Expansion becomes selective

Global expansion won’t stop, but it will narrow. Mature markets in Europe and North America will begin to slow, as growth is weak and costs are high. However, emerging markets will remain attractive. These have younger populations with mobile-first behaviour. This results in higher growth but also increased risk. Plus, many of these markets have currency volatility and political uncertainty. All of which requires that companies target their expansion with great care.

Pressure, not collapse

The current crisis certainly does not break the mobile ecosystem but it does compresses it. The demand is there and it remains, but the value is weakened, and this is further exacerbated by supply constraints.

Ultimately, the result is a reset. The sector must move from growth to discipline, from expansion to selection, and from innovation to application.

MEF data shows this is already happening. The slowdown is not theoretical, it is real and can be seen in transactions, behaviour and markets. The next phase will reward those who adapt early, control costs, protect margins, and build services that users cannot cut.

Even with the consequences of the Middle East oil shock, mobile remains central to the digital economy, but the rules are changing.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Dario Betti is CEO of MEF (Mobile Ecosystem Forum) a global trade body established in 2000 and headquartered in the UK with members across the world. As the independent voice of the mobile ecosystem, MEF focuses on cross-industry best practices, anti-fraud and monetisation. The Forum provides its members with global and cross-sector platforms for networking, collaboration and advancing industry solutions.

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